April 2004

THE TOP 10 INSIGHTS

 

From The 50th Annual Advertising Research Foundation Convention, April 26-28 2004, NY

1.  Everything is changing in a way that only happens once every few hundred years. McCann’s top researcher, Joe Plummer, characterized it as a major paradigm shift from the age of information to the age of imagination. Binary, the basis of all computers, is becoming digital. Emphasis on engineering has shifted to a biological emphasis. Precision is becoming possibilities. Domestic has become global. Wired is now wireless. And one-way marketing models, like AIDA (Attention, Interest, Desire, Action) have become interactive, like those of the next speaker, Harvard’s Gerald Zaltman.

2.  Cocreation is the key to effective advertising. Zaltman cited this as the basis for his new model of how advertising really works, detailed in his new best seller "How Customers Think." Cocreation means advertising impact comes from stories and perceptions of the individual consumer as well as from what is built into the ad or commercial. It is not revealed by asking people to feed back the main point, because much of the "thinking" that leads to buying is immediate, emotional and subconscious. It is not the old model where we assumed "the" image of the brand was something the individual would want to be associated with. Zaltman cited new evidence from many disciplines to show not everyone sees the brand’s image or "story" the same way. The goal is to have different types seeing it in different ways that makes it more relevant to each of them. It means we need to measure the impact on emotions and the individual’s mindset – something he said many common ad testing procedures are not providing.

3.  Differentiating promises are what now drive brand value. Y&R’s Ed Lebar continued the convention’s "re-think" theme with new data on brand development. He found advertising is not the key driver any more. A Y&R panel of 6000 respondents showed finding ways to differentiate promises is the key to developing brands people will pay more for. It is not the same as relevance. Differentiation builds consideration. Relevance builds trial. Together they account for the brand’s strength. Some of us thought it sounded like a rediscovery of the Unique Selling Proposition (USP) from a previous generation.

4.  Forget everything you know about the future of TV. Media visionary Alan Wurtzel of NBC said the "big tent" program that everybody likes has become a rarity. Audience flow that aided new programs that followed an old program with a big audience only happens now if you are lucky. Counter programming to keep the other network’s big program from getting too large an audience is something you can forget when cable is already offering so many alternatives. The "least objectionable program" (LOP) that could be counted on to always get some audience from those who wanted to watch TV regardless of what is on was great while it lasted. But now cable continuously offers something for virtually every taste. He concluded his comments about the future of network TV saying there are only two rules that will hold: 1.) Good stories, well told, will be watched. 2.) In this business, nobody knows anything.

5.  The need to "disintegrate" Integrated Media Planning was questioned. Media guru Erwin Ephron used biblical analogies to compare today’s situation to towers of babble. Media planning is being "integrated" by assuming TV is the core and then measuring what other media can add in terms directly comparable to the measures available for TV. He said that was wrong because it ignored their key differences. Since we don’t know what the combined effects are on people exposed to the brand’s advertising in more than one medium, it would be better if we simply allocated media budgets on the basis of what needs to be done, and which medium does those tasks best. He outlined a procedure for doing this. What caused questions was that original assumption that we don’t know anything about the combined effects of overlap and synergy. The ARF’s Bill Cook asked what should be done if we found synergies do exist. Leslie Wood, another major leaguer in media analysis, reminded Erwin of the work her ARF Council is doing to provide a "single-source" solution to media synergy. They are about to launch a test of people wearing meters throughout the day, meters capable of determining the programs they are watching, the stations they are listening to, the billboards they pass, etc. Erwin said this was all fine, but it doesn’t exist today. He completely overlooked recognition-based multi-media ad tracking, like that conducted by our firm, which for many purposes, can do the same job as the elaborate "single-source" systems, and do it better, faster and cheaper.

6.  Much traditional research is missing the mark, according to outspoken Dennis Murphy, former head of research at IBM. He feels ROI is the wrong thing to do. Accountability is OK for financial folks, but all their models have flaws, and the real leverage is in finding how to sell more. Too much advertising has a negative effect that you never hear about. Recall only tells you the respondent is not an idiot. It doesn’t show anything about impact. He is glad to see recognition being used more. Agencies are right in saying we use bad tools to measure their work. They are wrong in saying they can’t be measured.

7.  Physiological measurements of emotion hold promise. The 4As and the ARF are starting a major "Emotion in Advertising" project to explore Zaltman’s theories. The project includes looking at "a wide range" of physiological measures. In another talk, Bruce Hall (Answer Stream) described recent success measuring feelings with minimally intrusive physiological testing that only required placing electrodes on three fingers. He agreed with most other speakers that what we have recently learned about decision-making means a think-feel-do model like AIDA is not as valid as feel-do-think models. So, he explored feelings with 36 respondents and five commercials. He found skin conductance (GSR) measured interest and involvement, correlating with an orienting response. Pulse measured mental workload or cognitive processing, and heart rate measured pleasure and displeasure. A careful review of those pleasure/displeasure findings would seem in order in view of the old claims the good Professor Hess made that pupillometrics could tell the difference between attraction and repulsion way back in Marion Harper’s day at InterPublic. It was a decade before other academics showed how wrong he was. The incident has given physiological testing a bad name ever since. Hall also advocated product testing as a part of pre testing. If those who saw the commercial felt the product was better than those who didn’t, you had an important measure of the commercial’s impact on product perceptions.

8.  Advertising is still an art, not a science. So said DDB’s Chairman, Keith Reinhard. He was introduced as one of the country’s most influential creatives, who had been invited to provide comments on research from the other side. He opened with the thought that modern advertising consists of a lot more than copy, so continued use of the phrase "copy testing" makes him think of research as something out of the last century. He went on to ask if we haven’t always known it is the emotional impact that counts. He agreed we need more than copy feedback, and he asked if we were doing enough to involve creatives in research. But he was concerned the interesting new models being considered might eventually lead to new rules, because the most effective advertising was often the advertising that broke the rules. He said the cash register was the real measure - placing himself firmly in the camp of behavioral researchers, rather than the attitudinal researchers that prevailed at this meeting.

9.  Two big tests showed online advertising works for package goods. Nielsen’s Homescan partnered with Yahoo to study the effects online advertising, by an impressive group of CPG firms, had on 19,000 households. All campaigns tested showed sales lifts ranging from 15% to 36%. A Rex Briggs (Marketing Evolution) study with MSN showed the optimal media mix for Jello included 5-6% spent online, and 4-6% online for CoffeeMate.

10.  Research needs to show how much value there is in embedded content: product placements and the like. Similarly, there is a great unmet need to determine the value of tie-ins like Olympic sponsorships. There is also a long way to go in measuring the value of PR. This was all from the convention’s concluding remarks by David Bell, an old boss of mine whose other claims to fame include being Chairman of the Board and CEO of The Interpublic Group of Companies, Past President of the 4A’s, and former CEO of Bozell Worldwide. He said research and ad agencies never needed each other more. This new head of one of the largest of agency holding companies also expressed concerns about the way holding companies had developed over the decades. They bought any firm that could help their clients and ended up with a remarkable assortment of assets. But he questioned why his own IPG owned things like a racetrack. He felt this old model for holding companies resulted in too much isolated expertise.

These are only highlights of things that caught my interest. Check www.TheARF.org for more details.

                                                                                                Don Bruzzone, May, 2004

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