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The Top 10 Insights From the Advertising Research Foundation Annual Convention, NYC, April 16-18, 2007
Internet Advertising is changing all the rules: “Pushing” advertising in front of everybody through mass media is changing to a system where consumers will have a lot more control. Already, lots of the younger generation only sees advertising when they go online because they are not spending much time with TV and the other media. And what they see tends to be tailored to their age and interests. Toyota’s new make of cars for Generation Y, Scion, was introduced without any TV. The theme of the conference was to “re:think” the role research could and should play in these uncertain times.
Online Advertising can be effective: The ARF just published a book full of examples: “The Online Advertising Playbook”. Radisson Hotels increased visits to its web site from 7,000 to 125,000 a month after they paid to be mentioned on search sites. Home Depot reported double digit increases in sales from just revamping their site.
The 30 second TV commercial is dead: That was announced by no less an authority than the advertising super star whose team brought us the Aflac Duck, Linda Kaplan Thaler. It was done over lunch with a memorial in the form of a farewell video beautifully produced by her group. Later speakers seemed to take the whole thing a little too seriously when presenting evidence TV campaigns were still having a very measurable effect on the public.
The tradeoff between cost and quality makes big researchers nervous: When interviewed as a panel, the CEO’s of Nielsen, GfK, TNS and Kantar, all mentioned the lower survey costs online interviewing is making possible. But all of them also indicated they were not comfortable, and at least a bit uncertain, about the effect this may be having on survey quality. In spite of the parallel studies most of us conducted at the beginning to be sure online studies were producing the same answers we got before, quality concerns were discussed in many sessions. They were addressed directly by SSI and Harris who both divide the suspicious frequent survey takers into more acceptable categories of hyperactive, conditioned, and inattentive. They felt it was only the fourth segment, fraudulent respondents, that had to be eliminated and they outlined steps they were taking to do that. Earlier sessions had speakers from the one field where they can still pull a near perfect random sample: exit polling. Webster and Lenski from Edison Media described how they have used the same procedures at athletic events in studying the effect of sponsorships.
Colgate throws out vendors who don’t offer sales-based metrics: Jim Figura, their Research VP, didn’t make much of that point when he was moderating the big researcher’s panel. But it was evidence of something less than unanimity in research circles, particularly in the measurement of Engagement. There were several papers on this hot new topic. All used the “official” definition adopted by the ARF group working on the subject last year: “Turning on a prospect to a brand idea enhanced by the surrounding context”. At the time a number of us favored definitions indicating Engagement had to have some effect on sales. ARF head Bob Barocci indicated from the podium there was still some disagreement about the definition, so there may still be hope for something better in the future.
Commitment to Success leads to Failure: That was the theme of Wednesday’s keynote speaker, Michael Raynor, drawn from his new book “The Strategy Paradox”. Betamax was the first example. They never did anything “wrong.” But the VHS format took over and they went out of business. His studies have shown that was not an exception. He cited the dismal performance of most firms listed in the 1974 Fortune 100. The problem? Unwavering commitment to a strategy leaves a firm vulnerable to unexpected changes. You need to evaluate your options under all the unpredictable conditions the future may offer, a need that certainly applies to the current advertising situation.
Emotion reduces attention: This was another surprising finding introduced on the final day. It was based on yet to be published results of a survey by Robert Heath of both factors on 43 commercials currently being aired in the US or the UK. A summary that ARF’s Joe Plummer characterized as a seminal paper, was in the new ARF booklet handed out Wednesday “Measures of Engagement Volume II”. It was seen as having serious implications for those who have been saying emotion is the key to greater engagement.
The (PRODUCT) RED TM campaign impressed everyone. It wasn’t so much the research behind this effort that got firms like Apple, Armani, American Express, Converse, Motorola and The Gap to contribute 50% of the profit they made, from the special products they colored red, to combat AIDS in Africa; It was the realization that the same types that found a way to get people to pay good money for bottled water had actually accomplished something we could all be proud of.
Ad agencies are becoming digital. The conference heard one (Razorfish) say “advertising” is not the core of what they do. Their skill is in using internet communication to deliver targeted messages to people when they want the message. Traditional agencies were characterized as being more interested in “punch lines and entertainment”. Some felt too little was heard about the broad strengths of traditional agencies and their ability to adapt.
Google is competing with survey research. Online searching offers many a new and less expensive way to learn about trends, developments and public reactions: subjects they had to conduct surveys to learn anything about in the past. Further, Google’s pioneering of a “price per lead” produced by advertising on their site promises a whole new era in accountability and the study of ROI. Don Bruzzone DonBruzzone@Bruzzone-Research.com
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