The Top 10 Insights

 From the Advertising Research Foundation Annual Convention, NYC, Mar 31- Apr 2, 2008

If you can’t measure it, you can’t sell it.  This pronouncement from NBC’s Allen Wurtzel turned out to be the most quoted comment at the 2008 Convention. It pointed up the continuing efforts featured at the last 5 ARF Conventions to measure the growing reach, frequency and impact of advertising on the web and on mobile phones.   At the same time, it reflected frustration that these new electronic media were still attracting only 8% of the country’s advertising dollars - and it pointed to the reason.  

comScore is trying mightily to do that measuring.  The firm took two solid hours before the whole convention to describe its efforts.  They talked at length about their large, monitored panels of web users and how they provided a better measure of a website’s reach and frequency.   Alternative server-based estimates depend on planting a cookie on a visitor’s computer to separate returning visitors from new visitors.  There was considerable discussion of how often people clear cookies from their computers, leading to over counts of reach and undercounts of frequency in server-based estimates.  Gian Fulgoni, convention chair and founder of comScore, described his company’s data showing how often the number who are online is now exceeding the number watching TV.    

Nielsen is also ramping up digital measurments.  They recently bought several firms in the field to enhance their abilities.  They also took a two hour stretch to describe their new abilities, possibly reflecting back a few decades when the same Gian Fulgoni started scanning and ended Nielsen’s long dominance in reporting product sales through supermarkets by conducting in-store inventory audits.  Paul Donato, Nielsen’s Chief Research Officer, along with heads of the several divisions involved, described how they were now prepared to provide a “three screen solution” measuring a person’s use of the TV screen, the computer screen, and the mobile phone screen.  

Many other measures are vying to fill the gap.  Obviously comScore and Nielsen data have yet to convince advertisers reaching people online is worth as much as reaching them conventionally.  (Advertisers are still spending 88% of their dollars on broadcast and print).  Alternative methods of measuring advertising impact were described at a number of sessions.  They included mapping brain reactions with several forms of MRI, having focus groups wear wired skullcaps to measure their EEG, recruiting people to watch the Super Bowl wearing biometric vests, and new approaches to tracking eye movements.   Non physiological approaches included research based on metaphors, virtual interviews, mining old data, new forms of ROI, and conversion rates: the percent that do what you are urging them to do.  

Procurement departments led to declines in online research quality.  That charge was made by Kraft’s Jim Nyce.  He cited their growing involvement in research decisions, and their enthusiasm for the lower costs of online research.  He said it contributed to a focus on what more can be shifted to low cost online surveys, and a mind set that tended to overlook the quality issues that have been developing.  When online surveys started many of us conducted validation studies that apparently made him and most researchers comfortable moving to the internet.  But he saw the current investigation of the new quality issues as critical.  He said when its credibility is questioned, research is valueless.  

Quality issues are being investigated with considerable vigor.   The ARF Council on Online Research Quality, one that we have been working on, reported on a survey of ARF members showing 4 out of 5 were concerned about the quality of online research, particularly: Can the results be relied on as representing the real views of the public?  Along with this indication of widespread concern, a program of “Research on Research” was proposed focusing on multi-panel membership and respondent engagement.  The initial step would be a major survey to explore the impact of virtually every issue being raised currently about the quality of online research.  The Council has already circulated among itself an extensive bibliography of prior research on these issues, a bibliography that is expected to be accessible to all the middle of this month on the new ARF website: thearf.org.  All results are scheduled to be presented at next year’s ARF Convention.  

The digital media are still changing.   Although the proportion of the population that is online appears to be topping out and leveling off, we heard the proportion visiting social networks is growing rapidly and now equals the number using email.  Free sites are growing faster than those that charge something to view their content.  The number of cell phones in the US now exceeds the number of personal computers. The ratio in favor of mobile phones is higher than that in many areas overseas.  

There is a need to integrate media.  The cable show Hills and the upcoming Summer Olympics were cited as examples.   Hills has not only developed a strong cult following on cable, it also enjoys a broad array of well visited web sites devoted to the program, sites that keep people talking and thinking about Hills.  Wurtzel described NBC’s new digital offerings and said the way they will all be incorporated in covering the Olympics will set new standards for the industry. Although some characterized the situation as “digital confusion” most appeared to agree it was better characterized as “expanding the opportunities to reach people”.  

Institutional changes were also cited:  Carla Hendra, head of Ogilvy NY, described how they were reinventing themselves to meet changing needs.  Fulgoni added that in his experience ad agencies were struggling with fragmentation with varying levels of success.  Kraft’s Nyce said corporate research departments had been shrinking, outsourcing responsibilities to research firms.  Both corporate researchers and research vendors were heard to say there was a need for more staff members on the other side with experience and understanding of their side.  

Content still counts – on any platform.   There was universal agreement with that point, reinforced perhaps by a frequently discussed source of new creative that is proving to have considerable impact – “Kids with a Mac”.

                                                 Don Bruzzone                                                                                                DonBruzzone@Bruzzone-Research.com

 Bruzzone Research Company – 2515 Santa Clara Ave., Alameda, CA 94501 – (510) 523 5505 www.Bruzzone-Research.com